Illustration: Craig Stephens
The Year of the Rabbit usually symbolises hope, rebirth and peace. I wish it really meant that for 2023.
The recently concluded 2022 was an extraordinarily difficult year for China. Almost everyone here has deeply felt the painful impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on their lives and the national economy. Moreover, Communist Party leadership changes added further uncertainty.
However, the biggest challenge in the Year of the Tiger was the crisis caused by US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan.
Compared to three other pressing issues – the Covid-19 pandemic, economic downturn and leadership changes – the Taiwan problem is a historical one. I have been teaching it to Chinese and foreign students for more than a decade. Even though we continue to discuss relevant legal issues inside and outside the classroom or online, in my view, no one has made a convincing legal case for Taiwan independence.
While the debate on legal matters concerning Taiwan’s status continues, the real political forces behind the Taiwan issue have grown stronger and more assertive in recent years. On one hand, China has grown to become the world’s second-largest economy and a leading military power, and it has kept an increasingly hard line on the one-China principle in recent years.
On the other hand, Taiwan has not only developed into the world’s largest chip maker but been ruled for years by a political party that is opposed to unification with the mainland. Moreover, the United States has maintained its status as the world’s largest economy and the sole military superpower while also naming China as its biggest priority.
Consequently, even though China might be able to overcome those other three issues in 2023 after moving away from the “zero-Covid” policy and completing the party leadership shuffle, the Taiwan problem is expected to return in a more alarming way.
Let us look at the facts. Despite its poor showing in November’s local elections and a significant loss of support among the young people of Taiwan, the Democratic Progressive Party-led government announced on December 27 that Taiwan’s mandatory military service would be extended from the current four months to one year.
This is another major step towards rejecting reunification with force. In August, the same government moved to increase Taiwan’s military spending for 2023 to more than NT$586 billion (US$19 billion), a 13.9 per cent increase from the previous year’s military budget and the largest increase in years.
In what might be a coincidence, the US Congress adopted the Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2023 on December 23 – four days before Taiwan extended its mandatory military service. Instead of providing direct military assistance, the act allocated US$2 billion in loans to Taiwan through the Foreign Military Financing Programme. US President Joe Biden signed the bill into law on December 29.
While a US$2 billion loan might not sound like much, especially compared to the US$45 billion the US agreed to provide Ukraine, it nevertheless means a lot for Taiwan as the island’s military budget for next year is just US$19 billion. More importantly, it could symbolise a new normal and deeper US involvement in Taiwan’s defence.
Not surprisingly, China responded to the news out of Washington by sending a record 71 warplanes near Taiwan in its largest military display so far. China also conducted a series of military exercises near Taiwan after Pelosi’s visit, a visible demonstration of its determination to safeguard what it sees as its national sovereignty.
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PLA scrambles record 71 warplanes near Taiwan in response to increased US military aid
In addition, last week the Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning and its strike group conducted exercises near the US territory of Guam, which sits at the centre of the second island chain.
The US and China already hold first and second place in the world when it comes to military budgets. For the US, its military budget for the 2023 financial year will reach US$857.9 billion, as laid out in the 2023 National Defence Authorisation Act. Meanwhile, China’s military budget for 2022 reached a record 1.45 trillion yuan (US$210 billion).
The question is why we should make a big fuss about this. Haven’t we got used to the ups and downs of US-China relations in the past? There are good reasons for them to manage them each time.
Haven’t we long believed there is a sword of Damocles hanging over Taiwan, with China’s political will and military might thwarting Taiwan independence? There will be no armed conflict across the Taiwan Strait until and only until Taiwan independence becomes a reality, no matter if it is declared or not.
Haven’t we also long been convinced that unless the US is willing to fully sever its diplomatic ties with China, its use of the Taiwan issue will ultimately lead nowhere other than playing to certain domestic and international audiences?
That was then and this is now, though. China has become the top priority of the US.
As a result, Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan last year is different from then House Speaker Newt Gingrich’s trip in 1997 in that it likely opened a Pandora’s box. There appear to be no signs that the military build-up and increasingly frequent confrontations around Taiwan in particular, and in the Asia-Pacific region in general, are going to slow down any time soon.
All sides appear to be preparing for what could be an inevitable military solution. Are we witnessing a self-fulfilling prophecy again? Let us pray for peace in the Year of the Rabbit and every other year to come.
Xu Xiaobing is director of the Centre of International Law Practice at Shanghai Jiao Tong University Law School